Same as Ever

Trying to predict the future is a fool's errand in a world where we have less control than we think.

So, what do you base your long-term and even life-changing bets on?

The things that stay the same.

Here are a few invaluable lessons on this topic from Morgan Housel:

Events and risks compound

Any noticeable event in our lives has resulted from tiny, unpredictable events that have occurred in a specific way for this milestone event to turn out the way it did.

Even a slight change in the constituting events would've rewritten how the milestone event played out.

Apple, the company, might not exist today if Steve Jobs hadn't taken a job working at Hewlett Packard, where he became friends with Steve Wozniak.

It's foolish to try and predict the future because we can't predict how thousands of these micro-events will play out and affect the outcome of the one event we're trying to predict.

Risks compound the same way.

Individually, small risks seem harmless and are easier to discount. But one small risk can compound to cause a catastrophe beyond our wildest imaginations.

The 2003 Columbia Space Shuttle disaster is a prime example.